The Strategic Implications of Delaying Impeachment Proceedings in a Post-Election Senate

As we approach the certification of Senate seats for Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, the debate arises over whether the House of Representatives should wait to send articles of impeachment to the Senate until these seats are officially confirmed. This decision is not merely a political maneuver but also carries significant strategic implications for the legislative process and future governance.

House Impeachment and Senate Conviction

The process of impeachment typically involves two main stages: the House of Representatives voting to impeach and the Senate holding a trial and potentially convicting the individual in question. Once the House passes the articles of impeachment, it then sends them to the Senate for a trial. The Senate, specifically a panel of senators, would then conduct the trial and, if convicted, the individual could be removed from office and potentially barred from holding future public office.

Hypothetical Scenarios: Timing and Political Considerations

Let's examine a hypothetical scenario where the House impeaches former President Donald Trump, yet does not immediately send the articles of impeachment to the Senate. Instead, the House chooses to delay the passage by withholding the sentencing until a later date, such as after Ossoff and Warnock are confirmed as senators. There are several reasons why the Democrats might consider this delay:

Preserving Senate Calendar: Post-election, the Senate faces a heavy legislative agenda. Delaying the impeachment process allows the Senate to focus on other critical issues like confirming Biden's cabinet, passing infrastructure and budget bills, and addressing pressing domestic concerns. Strategic Timing: By delaying the impeachment process, the Democrats might hope to improve their chances of achieving Senate convictions. The current political landscape shows that significant support from Republicans for conviction may not be forthcoming, and thus keeping the Senate free to pass legislation could be more beneficial. Vulnerability of Republican Opposition: If the impeachment process were to be delayed until after the presidential inauguration, it could potentially soften the resolve of Republican senators, increasing their likelihood of changing their stance or finding reasons to abstain.

Implications for the Current Legislative Environment

However, the decision to delay the impeachment proceedings is not without its challenges. Let's consider the current scenario where Ossoff and Warnock join all Democrats and two independent senators in voting for conviction. This would require 17 Republicans to vote with them for a conviction. In the absence of Ossoff and Warnock, the number needed grows to 19 Republicans, making it an even steeper challenge.

If the House were to vote to impeach, the critical decision would be when to send the articles to the Senate. If the vote to impeach is high and imminent, delaying the process might not significantly affect the chances of conviction. Conversely, if there is a belief that the swell of support is growing among Republicans, then waiting could indeed be beneficial.

However, given the current political landscape, it is highly unlikely that the Senate will have the 67 votes necessary for a conviction, even if the impeachment papers are sent to the Senate immediately. The Democrats would need an additional 17 Republican votes, which is very improbable given the existing political tendencies.

Conclusion: Constitutional Authorities Post-Election

An additional consideration is the potential for impeachment proceedings against a former president. If impeached before leaving office, Trump could face a Senate trial. However, it remains an open question whether the Senate would have the authority to hold such a trial for a former president. Constitutional experts offer differing opinions:

Two Experts: The Senate would not have the authority. Three Experts: The Senate might have the authority. One Expert: The Senate would have the authority.

In conclusion, while delaying the impeachment proceedings could potentially benefit the Democrats in terms of legislative flexibility, the practical realities and constitutional considerations make it challenging to achieve a desirable outcome.